Monte Carlo Discussion Paper
Monte Carlo simulation offers an alternative to the design event method. This approach recognises that any design flood characteristics (e.g. peakflow) could result from a variety of combinations of flood producing factors, rather than from a single combination. The approach mimics “mother nature” in that the influence of all probability distributed inputs are explicitly considered, thereby providing a more realistic representation of the flood generation processes.
This report describes the practical implementation of Monte-Carlo techniques for flood estimation. The discussion focuses on the manner in which the current (ARR) guidelines and available design information can be used to take into account the natural variability of the inputs, and presents the concepts in a manner that can be implemented in a spreadsheet. While it would be possible to directly employ these techniques with existing models, this guidance should also be found helpful to those using Monte Carlo frameworks that are available in the public domain. The report can be downloaded here.
ARR Update Presentation
ARR editor Professor James Ball is giving a general update on the ARR revision progress at Engineers Australia in Newcastle. Presented will be advice on the document, the progress towards completion and the many changes to practice that will arise from its publication. It will be held in Newcastle on the 3rd of July at 6pm. Further details can be found here.
ARR presentations at the FMA Conference
There will be three presentations directly related to the ARR revision:
- The Revised Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) Design Rainfall for Australia, Janice Green (BoM) on the Thursday at 10.50am
- Estimation of Design Floods Using Continuous Simulation, James Ball (UTS and ARR editor) on the Thursday at 11.50am
- New Regional Flood Estimation Methos for the Whole of Australia: Overview of Progress, Ataur Rahman (UWS) on the Thursday at 1.10pm
For more information on the conference please refer to the website.
Call for Reviewers
Those interested in officially reviewing projects should email firstname.lastname@example.org briefly describing which projects they are interested in reviewing and what qualifications/experience they have in those practice areas. Please include a brief CV. Those wishing to review project reports in an unofficial capacity can download project reports from the website and email comments to email@example.com.
Australian Rainfall and Runoff has joined LinkedIn. Join the group for discussions and updates on the revision of Australian Rainfall and Runoff.